Experience with Primavera Pertmaster ?

Experience with Primavera Pertmaster? Has anyone seen entities, specifically energy companies, using this tool to model schedule risk analysis? If not, which entities have you seen using it?

I have seen several energy companies use it. Some better than others. It is a powerful tool but it does have its draw backs. One of the biggest is that it rounds durations to the nearest day. Depending on the activity duration and the risk range, it is possible to assing a risk to an activity and have no variation in the duration. I have also found that it can be cumberson to load data. You are also limited to entering risk on durations. Another product that I like is @Risk for microsoft project. The only downside is the MS project interface. But if you are working with a network with around 200 activities, it is not much of an issue. With regards to schedule risk analysis in general, it is a vital tool to be used in conjunction with quaitative risk analysis and quantitative cost risk analysis. A proper schedule risk analysis can help identify potential problems for a project.

I have used Primavera RIsk Analysis (previously known as Pertmaster) for the last 8-9 years, predominantly with Rail and Construction companies. Assuming that you are planning to use on projects I am sure it is applicable to the energy industry. I find it an excellent tool but not approprate for all applications - e,g, software development and production rates (if your energy company was looking at laying cable for instance) I often use it in conjunction with @risk to get a complete solution. Actually pertmaster will plan down to 15 minute units, though I never found the nearest day a limitation except for railway possessions, which I would simulate in a seperate model anyway. I have found @Risk for MS Project to be unsatisfactory, due to MS Project. There is another product called riskyproject by Intaver, it is far less expensive that Pertmaster but cannot open P3 files (the last time I checked).

I use the tool that used to be called Pertmaster. Its powerful but has limited flexibility unless you have a version issued before Oracle removed VBA capability and you have good VBA skills. For straightforward uncertainty in durations and network branching Its fine and it interfaces well with Primavera of course, which is useful. The fact that the Gantt charts look like Primavera assists in gaining acceptance for the analysis from the main schedulers and project managers. There is a VBA risk factors module that implements independent distributions, which can be applied as multipliers to designated tasks, but Its not a fully worked up commercial product and Oracle dont support it. Oracle claim that Pertmaster can be used for cost modelling as well as schedules but its cost modelling capabilities are limited compared to what one can achieve in @Risk for Excel. In addition, just as having a Primavera look and feel assists in gaining acceptance from planners, Excel goes over well with estimators. Many costs on large capital projects are more or less independent of duration, although escalation is subject to phasing, and cost risk modelling constructs are not a good fit for a schedule based tool. Im usually working with a set of risk drivers that overlap and apply separately to specific components of the cost, eg. uncertainty in a bulk material quantity affects the bulk material supply cost and the labour hours for installation while uncertainty in the supply rate affects only the bulk material supply cost and then productivity and the labour rate affect the cost of the the labour. Even if predictable relationships such as this were accommodated, odd things crop up that are a moments work in Excel. eg. uncertainty about the balance between precast and in situ poured concrete was important on a recent job and implemented in a couple of minutes. I usually confine the schedule modelling to a summary view that represents the overall envelope within which the work will be executed and import the distribution into Excel where I use @Risk to model costs and link the schedule drivers to relevant time dependent costs such as overheads and temporary facilities. Not only does this provide a sound set of modelling capabilities, it lends itself to a relatively concise analysis that limits the time the project team have to devote to the risk assessment. Its also transparent enough that they can be talked through the models inner workings easily, which is crucial to gaining acceptance of the results. Id like one tool that was a fully functional planning system linked to a rich open modelling environment that clients project teams could understand but it doesnt exist at the moment and the combination of a planning tool and @Risk for Excel works well. Im not sure if the tool that was Pertmaster will maintain its favoured position though. Its extremely expensive and Oracle is similar to Microsoft when it comes to client relationships and support.

Of all the project controls/ management software I have/ am using, Primavera Risk Analysis (formally Pertmaster) is by far and away the most useful piece of software that can benefit a project. I have used it both before project commencement, and also at project close out, to prove to management that initial estimates were never going to be realised. I have used the weather modelling feature to great effect (ie chances of a hurricane is 20% during months of xyz, so project end date wil be x). Again, as with everything in life, it needs realistic data to be of any worth.