Technical Paper

Technical Paper

Incorporating Risk Assessment into Project Forecasting
Dione Palomino Conde Laratta, PMP

The science of project management was founded, in large part, to manage risk and prevent it from negatively affecting project objectives, schedules, and budgets.

Risk in any project is unavoidable. Fortunately, there are proven methods to identify and analyze potential threats so that appropriate risk responses are developed and the project's level of exposure is controlled.

Risk analysis has become an important discipline within the field of project management. It involves prioritizing risks and assessing each identified risk's probability of occurrence and potential impact, whether positive or negative.

This paper explores both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques applied to the environmental industry. It explains how to incorporate risk assessment into forecasting and shows how a project was able to increase forecast accuracy from 50% to 95% by using the described approach.

Schedule Levels – Major Projects
Mosaic Projects

This is a major milestone type of schedule; usually only one page, it highlights major project activities, milestones, and key deliverables for th e whole project. It is used to summarise the project schedule in reports and other documents whe n a more detailed schedule is not required. Frequently developed by the ‘client’ as part of its initial feasibility studies for the project and th en maintained by the contractor; may be used to assist in the decision making process (go/no-go, prioritization and determining the criticality of p rojects). Can be used to integrate multiple contrac tors / multiple project schedules into an overall program schedule. Audiences for this schedule Level include , but are not limited to client, senior executives an d general managers. If included with a bid and/or t he Contract, demonstrates conformance to contractual a nd other milestones.

Schedule Risk Analysis; Are You Ready For It?
Tom Olden BMT Hi-Q Sigma

This paper raises concerns that the application of schedule risk analysis (SRA) may sometimes be merely a means to an end rather than as an aid to allow projects to make well founded decisions. The paper is not looking to describe the SRA process, or to detail the benefits of SRA. Instead the paper seeks to outline key questions a project manager should ask themselves about their project and organisation before undertaking an SRA.

Progress, Position, Prediction The key to completing projects on time
David Bordoli BSc MSc FCIOB MAPM ACIArb Driver Group

Current methods for assessing activity progress, calculating project position and forecasting project completion (including the use of earned value analysis) are examined in this paper. The disadvantages of current forecasting methods are discussed with special reference to single data point extrapolation and the difficulty for non-specialists in analysing s-curves. A different method of forecasting project completion using simple linear regression and time series analysis is proposed which has real practical applications for project managers and allows them to easily and rapidly produce position and forecast data in a format that is understood by layman and specialist.

Oil and Gas Industry Megaprojects: Our Recent Track Record.
Edward Merrow IPA Founder and CEO. SPE Oil and Gas Facilities. April 2012.

In a recent major study of industrial megaprojects, the author finds that oil and gas industry megaprojects fared very poorly. Earlier studies showed that the results of oil and gas megaprojects were quite similar to the results from megaprojects in other industrial sectors. With this much larger and more recent set of megaprojects, we find that upstream megaprojects are more fragile than their nonoil and gas industry cousins. The author attributes this finding to the poor functional integration that characterizes upstream project organizations, which makes these complex projects much more sensitive to poor preparation, schedule aggressiveness, and loss of continuity in project leadership.

FPSOs: Getting the Project Right!.
David Rosenberg. Presented at Global Floating.
Production Systems 2009
London, UK. December 2-3, 2009
United Kingdom. Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. “Productivity in the UK Engineering Construction Industry
Edward Merrow, Kelly Sonnhalter, Radha Somanchi, and Andrew Griffith. Ashburn, Virginia, USA: Independent Project Analysis, Inc, September 2009. (BER-0901-SPS).

This study explores engineering construction labour productivity in the United Kingdom for “engineering construction projects”, authorized between 1998 and 2008. These projects involve the construction or refurbishment of facilities in industries such as petroleum refining, chemicals manufacturing, power production, and the like. These projects generally require extensive engineering input and are usually heavy consumers of high skill crafts such as pipefitters and electricians.

Performance of Capital Projects in Australian Processing Industries
Joseph O'Brien. Independent Project Analysis, Inc., June 2009.
Market Trends- A Focus on Engineering Productivity
Dean Findley. Northwest Construction Consumer Council, Seattle, Washington, May 29, 2008.
Best Practices for Qualification Success: A Statistical Analysis of Characteristics and Practices that Drive IQ and OQ Cost and Schedule.
Allison Aschman and Gordon Lawrence. ISPE Pharmaceutical Engineering Online Exclusive, January 2007.

Installation qualification (IQ) and operation qualification (OQ) are frequently on the critical path of the activities in the construction or modification of pharmaceutical facilities. any delay during the IQ/OQ phase is a major problem if it prevents product from being delivered to meet market demand and/or regulatory approval.

Mega-field developments require special tactics, risk management.
Edward Merrow. Offshore, 28(6):90-96.
The Business Stake in Effective Project Systems
Edward Merrow. The Business Roundtable. 1997.
Developing Standards for Enterprise Schedule Quality
Tom Polen Director Professional Services, Acumen

Project-oriented organizations must approach quality from all angles—from the planning process to execution, and ultimately, through customer satisfaction. The need for quality is a constant, guiding force. However, as thousands, perhaps millions, of companies can attest, while quality is not necessarily expensive in the traditional sense, it can be difficult to obtain and an absence of quality can be costly and potentially fatal for a company.

Integrating Risk Management with Earned Value Management
National Defense Industrial Association

A paper summarizing a study of the current status of the integration of risk management with earned value management and recommendations for further actions. This study was conducted by the National Defense Industrial Association Program Management Systems Committee's Risk Management Working Group.

Scheduling a Project at Different Levels
Dr. Gui Ponce de Leon

Scheduling a project at the right level, at the right time, is an important consideration in project planning and scheduling. During management-level planning, when executive and senior management are involved, project-level schedules prevail. Read more by downloading the paper .

GPM® and Forensic Total Float
Dr. Gui Ponce de Leon

The critical path method (CPM) is widely used as a project management tool. Basic to CPM is for the planner to draw a project network first, and then to use CPM software to calculate activity dates and total floats, establish the project completion date and locate the critical path. Read more by downloading the paper .

Application to Critical Chain on high value petrochemical projects
John Welsh

This paper examines the practical application of the critical chain philosophy in the project management of high value petrochemical projects.

Practical Application of Earned Value Performance Measurement Using P3
Paul E Harris

The aims of this presentation is to review practical methods that may be used for managing projects using Earned Value Performance Measurement methods.(307 KB)

How P6 Resource Driven Activities Calculate
Paul E Harris

This paper lists a number of points that users shuld be aware off when importing a Microsoft Project file into a P6 database. Please contact the Eastwood Harris if there are some points that you consider should be added to this paper.

Notes for importing a Microsoft Project File into a P6 Database
Paul E Harris

The aim of this presentation shows how a P6 Resources Driven Activities calculate, it explores the interaction of the Resource and Task calendars and demonstrates that P6 calculates differently to other software scheduling software.

Primavera P6 Version 7 Bars formatting presentation
Paul E Harris

The P6 bar defaults may be misleading. For example the Baseline bars and the Negative Float bar have the same colour and are on the same line, the Level of Effort bars are not displayed and completed activities show Total Float. This presentation outlines changes to the Primavera default bar formatting that should be considered and as a result your schedule should be clearer.

What Primavera P6 Baseline Bars am I Displaying?
Paul E Harris

The aim of this presentation is to explain the different types of project schedule Baselines, how the Planned Dates are calculated, why the Planned Dates often display irrelevant data, the issues with the Planned Dates, what functions control the display of the Planned Dates as Baseline Dates, and how to ensure you have the Baseline dates and not the Planned Dates displayed as Baseline Bars.

A Step-By-Step Guide Using Software Development Kit(SDK) for Primavera Version 6.X schedule
Jeoffrey B. Reyes Sr.Planning Engineer Building Works / Road & Infrastructure Jubail Industrial City, K.S.
Importing Microsoft Project 2003 – 2010 files into Oracle Primavera P6 Version 7
Paul E Harris

Microsoft Project and Oracle Primavera P6 Version 7 calculate differently. It is unlikely that a schedule will calculate the same dates and other values such as durations and resource data in both packages unless the schedules are very simple or a large amount of manual manipulation is applied after conversion, down load and read on.

Cashflowing with Expenses in P6 by importing for an excel spread sheet
Paul E Harris
Primavera Bars Tricks and Traps
Paul E Harris

The defaults setting for the display of bars in Primavera P6 can be greatly improved with some formatting, this presentation outlines the issues and solutions. Presented by Paul E Harris at thePrimavera User Group in Melbourne June 2010.

Issues and Solutions facing Construction Contractors Implementing Primavera P6
Paul E Harris

Presented by Paul E Harris at the my PRIMAVERA09 Peak Project Performance conference in Melbourne. (633KB - June 2009 )

Asta Power Project to Primavera Version 5.0 Import and Export
Paul E Harris

Some notes written by Paul E Harris on the process of exporting schedules from Asta PowerProject to Primavera Version 5.0 (449 KB - July 2007)

P3 and Tilos data Interchange
Paul E Harris

A paper written by Paul E Harris on the import and export of data between Asta Tilos, a Linear scheduling software package from Germany. (1,356 KB - July 2007)

Theta Planning
Paul E Harris

This document has been compiled by Andrew Dick to assist in setting up a Primavera Enterprise project to enable resource scheduling to be achieved. (4,966 KB - July 2007)

Asta Power Project - an introduction
Paul E Harris

This document is designed to assist people who are using SureTrak, P3, Primavera Enterprise or Microsoft Project to learn the basics of PowerProject to create an unresourced schedule. (1,525 KB - Updated July 2009v)

Using P3 Batch to Rebuild Corrupt P3 Files
Paul E Harris

The process used by Paul Harris to rebuild corrupt files. This is a zip file that includes instructions and bat files. ((32KB - July 2007)

Importing and Exporting data to and from P3 using Excel and DBF format
Paul E Harris

This is a step by step guide on how to complete this process. (278 KB - June 2007)

Comparison of EVM Standards
Paul E Harris

The comparison of AS4817 Project performance using Earned Value 2006, ANSI/EIA-748-A-1998 Earned Value Management Systems and PMI Practice Standard for Earned Value Management (163 KB - 3 July 2006)

Guidelines for training people in using Planning and & Scheduling software
Paul E Harris

The aim of this paper is to outline some guidelines for organizations to structure their training as part of implementation of Planning and Scheduling software for the planning and control of projects. (151 KB - May 2005)

Guidelines for Implementing P&S Software
Paul E Harris

The aim of this paper is to outline some guidelines for organizations to use when looking at implementing a corporate project planning and scheduling system. Many of these guidelines equally apply to the implementation of a stand alone planning and scheduling system. ( 314 KB - April 2004)

Practical Application of Earned Value Performance Measurement Using P3
Paul E Harris

The aims of this presentation is to review practical methods that may be used for managing projects using Earned Value Performance Measurement methods.((307 KB)

Book Review Guide
Paul E Harris

A guide for people writing books reviews (158 KB - September 2003)

SureTrak % Calculation
Paul E Harris

This article explains how SureTrak calculates percent complete in the various fields available. ((102 KB)

Linking P3 Database with Excel or Access:
Paul E Harris

This article demonstrates how a P3 schedule database may be linked to Excel or a dbf file using the Pervasive ODBC drivers. (278 KB)

Techniques for Managing Complex Projects with Planning and Scheduling Software
Paul E Harris

This paper will discuss techniques that may be used for developing and managing schedules that have a large number of activities and a number of complex relationships. (246 KB)

Converting P3 and SureTrak files to and from Microsoft Project
Paul E Harris

This article looks at the various methods of converting files to and from Microsoft Project and P3 or SureTrak. (226 KB)

Selecting Project Management Software
Paul E Harris

This article is aimed at assisting companies in the process of selecting new project management software but could be applied to the selection of many other types of software. (28 KB)

Issues and Solutions facing Construction Contractors Implementing Primavera P6
Paul E Harris

Presented by Paul E Harris at the myPRIMAVERA09 Peak Project Performance conference in Melbourne. (633KB - June 2009 )