Acumen Risk and Primavera Risk Analysis ( aka Pertmaster)

Remember that Risk Management is more than just doing a Monte Carlo Analysis on the schedule. Most of your project risks will have little to do with time impacts to the completion date, and more to do with managing the variables that affect cost impacts or relationships between the client and the contractor. Primavera Risk Analysis works mostly with time impacts to the schedule and with the probability of meeting a given end date for the project. I have worked with P3/ P5/ P6 since the late 80s, the original Monte Carlo product from Primavera (for P3), and worked with Pertmaster software. I feel that Acumen has more to offer for schedule analysis and risk management than Primavera who re-branded PertMaster as their Risk Software.

youve raised an important concept. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is applicable to only to the aleatory (naturally occurring) uncertainties. These are random processes that can be modeled in the MCS tool. For "event based" uncertainties - Epistemic - the MCS can be used once the probability of occurrence is defined and the impact of that "event" is defined.The Risk Register typically contains information for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties that then turn into risk. The behaviors of these uncertainties "drive" risk and these of course drive the impacts on Earned Value. goo.gl/qzn4S speaks to this.The critical notion is "risk drivers," and the probabilistic impacts of these risks on cost, schedule, and technical performance. Several tools, including Acumen and RiskyProject, and PERTMaster can model these impacts on the Performance Measurement Baseline.I sit on the NDIA Risk and Opportunity committee, so if youre interested I can forward our current efforts to integrate Risk with all aspects of program management.

Remember that Risk Management is more than just doing a Monte Carlo Analysis on the schedule. Most of your project risks will have little to do with time impacts to the completion date, and more to do with managing the variables that affect cost impacts or relationships between the client and the contractor. Primavera Risk Analysis works mostly with time impacts to the schedule and with the probability of meeting a given end date for the project. I have worked with P3/ P5/ P6 since the late 80s, the original Monte Carlo product from Primavera (for P3), and worked with Pertmaster software. I feel that Acumen has more to offer for schedule analysis and risk management than Primavera who re-branded PertMaster as their Risk Software. Dr Dan Patterson, the founder of Acumen PM was one of the driving forces of PertMaster software before Primavera bought them. When Oracle bought Primavera, Dan started Acumen.

youve raised an important concept. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is applicable to only to the aleatory (naturally occurring) uncertainties. These are random processes that can be modeled in the MCS tool. For "event based" uncertainties - Epistemic - the MCS can be used once the probability of occurrence is defined and the impact of that "event" is defined.The Risk Register typically contains information for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties that then turn into risk. The behaviors of these uncertainties "drive" risk and these of course drive the impacts on Earned Value. goo.gl/qzn4S speaks to this. The critical notion is "risk drivers," and the probabilistic impacts of these risks on cost, schedule, and technical performance. Several tools, including Acumen and RiskyProject, and PERTMaster c an model these impacts on the Performance Measurement Baseline.I sit on the ND IA Risk and Opportunity committee, so if youre interested I can forward our current efforts to integrate Risk with all aspects of program management.

I have compared both tools (trough Acument Risk only from documentation, including user manual). I found that Primavera Risk Analysis includes more functions (like probabilistic branching, weather modelling...). On the other hand, Acumen Risk is easier to use when you are adding uncertainty to activities (duration ranging) massively, with its system of slides (trouhg the function is present also in PRA, with "templated quickrisk"); and Acumen Fuse is a more complete Schedule analyzer than the option incorporated in PRA. I think it is a question of wether the extra features in PRA are worth the significant price difference.